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Today · AUG 14 · 14 games
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Today's Free Read

#7 on today's board · free, in full
#7Lean
7:10 PM ET
SDKing
CLEWilliams
@
Progressive Field · 79°F · 6mph In
Model Score
59LEAN NRFI
NRFI Probability52%
Why this play
  • 01Away · starter career NRFI76% (68/90)
  • 02Home · starter career NRFI71% (69/97)
  • 03Home · form, last 54/5 NRFI
Key Signals
SD ice-cold bats (4/5 NRFI L5)
Fair Price
-10852%
SP NRFI
SP L5
vs Opp
Team
Team L5
Michael King
Padres×4
Michael King›×3
76%
68/90
80%
4/5
67%
2/3
59%
85/145
80%
4/5
Gavin Williams
Guardians
Gavin Williams›×2
71%
69/97
80%
4/5
100%
1/1
54%
78/144
60%
3/5
Matchup Splits
Padres
King On Road77%43g
Team On Road61%70g
King Night71%48g
Team Night49%412g
Guardians
Williams @ Home71%55g
Team @ Home49%70g
Williams Night62%52g
Team Night51%405g
Head-to-Head NRFI Hit Rate
All-time43%6/14
This season50%1/2
Last 560%3/5
Last 367%2/3

% = how often a meeting matched the row's scope ended NRFI. Higher = friendlier matchup for the under.

Pitcher Matchup

SDCLE
Michael King
Michael King
SD
76%NRFI
NRFI ×3vs CLE · 2/3 NRFI1st ERA 3.40
vs
Gavin Williams
Gavin Williams
CLE
71%NRFI
NRFI ×2vs SD · 1/1 NRFI1st ERA 4.55
NRFI%1st ERAWHIPL10L5vs OppRoadL5 R/1
Head-to-head Breakdown
SD team
NRFI 59% (85/145)L5 4/5R/G 4.54OPS .702K 22%
CLE team
NRFI 54% (78/144)L5 3/5R/G 4.28OPS .681K 22%

Every axis is computed from completed-game first-inning data. Tap any axis or row to see what it measures.

Michael King
Padres
Michael King
R/G season
4.54
R/G last 7
5.17
OPS
.702
K%
21.8%
BB%
9.1%
SP 1st-inn ERA (career)
3.40
SP 1st-inn ERA (2026)
2.89
SP career NRFI%
76%
SP season NRFI%
79%
SP last 3
3/3
SP last 5
4/5
SP last 10
8/10
Fernando Tatis Jr.
.773
Jackson Merrill
.716
Manny Machado
.710
Gavin Williams
Guardians
Gavin Williams
R/G season
4.28
R/G last 7
4.00
OPS
.681
K%
21.8%
BB%
9.8%
SP 1st-inn ERA (career)
4.55
SP 1st-inn ERA (2026)
4.82
SP career NRFI%
71%
SP season NRFI%
68%
SP last 3
2/3
SP last 5
4/5
SP last 10
8/10
Chase DeLauter
.804
Travis Bazzana
.716
José Ramírez
.715
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