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Monday, June 29

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Lock of the Day7:10 PM ET

TEX@

CLE

Tyler Alexander vs Parker Messick

NRFI Probability

53%

Model Score

STRONG Edge

Career NRFI

85% (22/26)

L5 form

5/5 NRFI

H L7 R/G

3.50 (6g)

Full Breakdown↓

Top Play

Highest edge on the board

#1Top Play

—

TEX@

CLE

Tyler Alexander vs Parker Messick

Progressive Field · 87°F · 6mph In

NRFI Probability

53%

/ 100

STRONG NRFI

Why this play

H · Career NRFI85% (22/26)+12.2
H · L5 form5/5 NRFI+12.0
H L7 R/G3.50 (6g)+12.0

Key Signals

Messick 10-start NRFICLE ice-cold bats (4/5 NRFI L5)TEX hot bats (4/5 YRFI L5)

Fair Price

-11353%

SP NRFI

SP L5

vs Opp

Team

Team L5

Rangers❄️×4

Tyler Alexander›🔥×3

72%

13/18

37%

39/105

Guardians🔥×2

Parker Messick›🔥×10

85%

22/26

52%

55/106

Matchup Splits

Rangers

Alexander On Road82%11g

Team On Road38%56g

Alexander Night71%14g

Team Night49%399g

Guardians

Messick @ Home83%12g

Team @ Home46%50g

Messick Night86%14g

Team Night50%381g

Head-to-Head NRFI Hit Rate

All-time62%16/26

This season50%2/4

Last 540%2/5

Last 333%1/3

% = how often a meeting matched the row's scope ended NRFI. Higher = friendlier matchup for the under.

Pitcher Matchup

TEXCLE

Tyler Alexander

TEX

72%NRFI

🔥 NRFI ×31st ERA 3.50

Parker Messick

CLE

85%NRFI

🔥 NRFI ×10vs TEX · 1/1 NRFI1st ERA 2.08

Head-to-head Breakdown

TEX team

NRFI 37% (39/105)L5 1/5R/G 4.60OPS .711K 23%

CLE team

NRFI 52% (55/106)L5 4/5R/G 4.38OPS .676K 22%

Every axis is computed from completed-game first-inning data. Tap any axis or row to see what it measures.

Rangers

Tyler Alexander

R/G season: 4.60
R/G last 7: 4.43
OPS: .711
K%: 22.5%
BB%: 8.9%
SP 1st-inn ERA (career): 3.50
SP 1st-inn ERA (2026): 0.00
SP career NRFI%: 72%
SP season NRFI%: 100%
SP last 3: 3/3
SP last 5: 3/5
SP last 10: 8/10

Guardians

Parker Messick

R/G season: 4.38
R/G last 7: 3.50
OPS: .676
K%: 21.8%
BB%: 10.1%
SP 1st-inn ERA (career): 2.08
SP 1st-inn ERA (2026): 0.00
SP career NRFI%: 85%
SP season NRFI%: 100%
SP last 3: 3/3
SP last 5: 5/5
SP last 10: 10/10

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The Board

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